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سوگیری ریسک به ریوارد

ما اگر به صرف گذاشتن حدضرر و یک هدف قیمتیTP ، بگوییم : ما وارد معامله می‌شویم ، و اگر قیمت در جهت تحلیل من حرکت نکرد ، با یک هزینه کم از بازار خارج می‌شوم ، یک نوع سوگیری ایجاد شده ، اینکه هزینه کم معامله ،
نسبت به دستاورد احتمالی باعث ورود ما به معامله گشته ، نه تمیز بودن موقعیت معاملاتی و بالا بودن احتمال موفقیت ، و این یک رفتار اشتباه در بازارهای مالی است . ما باید زمانی وارد یک پوزیشن معاملاتی شویم که احتمال موفقیت ما بالا باشد . مثال اگر مطابق تصویر زیر ما بالای سویینگ E وارد معامله Long شویم به این امید این که قیمت بتواند به اندازه موومنت قبلی یعنی CD ، حرکت نماید ، این معامله احتمال موفقیت بالایی دارد ، چون در ابتدای اکستنشن جدید وارد بازار شده ایم . اما اگر ما بخواهیم در موومنت سوم ، اکستنشن سوم وارد معامله Long شویم ، حتی اگرهزینه معاملاتی ما کم باشد و به این امید که قیمت شاید بتواند به اندازه اکستنشن قبلی یعنی CD حرکت نماید و تا F برسد ، چون انتهای اکستنشن می‌باشد و نشانه های ضعف دیده می شود ، ریسک ورود به این معامله بالا است . اما ما به صرف کوچک بودن حدضرر SL و کم بودن هزینه معامله ، وارد این معامله شده ایم ، در صورتی‌که می‌دانیم بالای %70 موومنت شکل گرفته و ریسک معامله بالا است ، اما سوگیری / باعث شده ما وارد این معامله شویم .

اگر ما برای پایین آوردن هزینه معامله ، به تایم های پایین تر برویم و ورود زودهنگامی داشته باشیم گاها این عمل تا یک تایم پایین تر ممکن است اشکالی نداشته باشد ، قبل از آن‌که کندل تغییر جریان سفارشات شکل گیرد ، و یا بلافاصله بعد از کندل تغییر و بدون خلصی وارد بازار شویم ، چون احتمال موفقیت پایین آمده ، احتمال این‌که حدضرر ما فعال گردد ، زیاد شده است و ما به صرف پایین آمدن هزینه معامله ، احتمال پرداخت هزینه را بالا برده ایم .

گاها دیده می‌شود که معامله گران ، برای پایین آوردن هزینه معامله و تعیین حدضرر تنگ تر به تایم فریم پایین تر رفته و سویینگی را شناسایی کرده و حدضرر خود را زیر آن قرار می‌دهند ، اما وقتی قیمت بر خلاف آن‌ها حرکت می‌نماید و به حدضرر آنها می رسد ، آن را رد کرده ، حدضرر فعال می‌گردد ، ولی مجددا قیمت برگشته و به مسیر خود ادامه می‌دهد . گویا عده ای منتظر هستند که فقط ما را از معامله خارج نمایند ، و بعد قیمت طبق تحلیل ما پیش رود و فقط افسوس برایمان باقی بماند . علت این موضوع این است که این سویینگی که درتایم پایین آن‌را شناسایی کرده بودیم ، در تایم اصلی‌ بالاتر تنها در حد یک سایه کندل ونهایتا یک کندل مخالف ، بعد از چند کندل موافق بوده و در حد یک نفس گیری و استراحت کوتاه بوده ، نه یک سویینگ موثر که معامله گران اصلی حدضرر خود را پشت آن قرار دهند و در صورت شکستن آن سطح ، قیمت پرشتاب در جهت مخالف حرکت نماید .

اگر مطابق شکل زیر ، بعد از دیدن کندل بی وزنی و کندل تغییر جریان سفارشات ، بعد از یک خلصی وارد معامله خرید شویم ، حدضرر خود را زیر آخرین سویینگ موثر قرار می‌دهیم . تا زمانی که قیمت اولین سطح پیش روی خود را نشکند ، ما نباید حدضرر خود را تغییر دهیم . اما بعد از شکست سطح ، ما حد ضرر خود را زیر آخرین کندلی که سطح را شکسته ، قرار می‌دهیم . همچنین اگر ما بخواهیم بعد از شکست سطح ورود داشته باشیم ، می‌توانیم حدضرر خود را زیر کندلی که سطح را شکسته قرار دهیم .

پس بطور کلی ما باید زمانی وارد معامله شویم که احتمال موفقیت آن معامله بالا باشد . یعنی پذیرش هزینه به شرط بالا بودن احتمال موفقیت معامله ،بطور مثال اگر ما یک گام خوب را شناسایی کنیم و بعد از اصلاح مناسب کندل تغییر جریان سفارشات را تشخیص دهیم و بعد از یک خلصی وارد معامله شویم ، حال مجازیم این هزینه فاصله نقطه ورود تا حدضرر را نسبت به دستاورد احتمالی بسنجیم . در این حالت ، حتی اگر قیمت به TP ما نرسد و برگردد ، ما می‌توانیم معامله را مدیریت نماییم و سربه سر یا با یک سود یا ضرر جزعی از معامله خارج شویم ، یعنی در مرحله اول ، ما ریسک معامله را مدیریت می کنیم ، در مرحله دوم اگر ریواردی هم بدست آمد به مدیریت آن می پردازیم ؛ یعنی الویت ما در هربازاری حفظ سرمایه می باشد.

ما در روش چارتیکال چیزی بنام ریسک/ریوارد نداریم ، اما فرصت را می سنجیم ، که آیا فرصت آن‌را داریم تا استراتژی خروج را اجرا نماییم .

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Chartical rules and regulations
Chartical rules and regulations

Risk disclosure and disclaimer:

Trading in all financial markets, including stocks, currencies, currency pairs, commodities, indices, cryptocurrencies, futures, etc., can lead to large and even irreparable losses to your capital. Therefore, making any transactions in these markets should only be done within the framework of knowing and accepting all the risks.

Due to the general nature of all trading markets, loss is an inseparable part of the trading results of all traders who trade with a variety of methods or tools. So naturally, no matter how you trade in any market, losses are always lurking.

Chartical advises everyone that if you are not yet engaged in trading in the financial markets, avoid doing so. Unless you become aware of all the risks of trading in the financial markets through reliable and scientific sources. All responsibility for the results of trading in these markets is with you.

Chartical collection is only a scientific collection, whose purpose is to improve the knowledge of those interested in financial markets. Chartical does not advertise, promote or encourage trading in financial markets.

Also, all content, trade technology services, artificial intelligence technology services, tools and support, whether free or paid, are only for the personal use of the user (you).

You do not have the right to copy or provide your user panel to others.

In case of violation, legal action will be taken according to the laws of copyright and author's right, and the user's access will be cut off from all services.

In this case, any fees you have paid to Chartical Group or Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli will not be returned to you, and you have taken away the right of any protest or complaint.

Because this means unilateral termination from your side.

Advertisements, software or companies introduced by Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli or the Chartical Group are only suggestions, and there is no responsibility for Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Amili or the Chartical Group.

The research and responsibility of using these software, data or companies is entirely the responsibility of the user (you), and the use of any of them constitutes acceptance of risk and responsibility on your part.

The only certainty in the market is uncertainty.

There is also the possibility of errors in Chartical's data or calculations, although we make every effort to provide good service, but ultimately the decision and responsibility of using Chartical's services rests with you.

We do not make any guarantees for the accuracy of the data and calculations.

Opening a trading account or any activity and transaction, in any of the brokerages or exchanges suggested by Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli or Chartical Group, requires and means accepting the rules and text of the contract, and the agreement between you and the relevant company.

Any reliability, accuracy and speed of service or support are all made by the respective (offered) companies. Any opening of an account or cooperation with brokers or exchanges means accepting the responsibility of the user (you) and does not have any obligation or responsibility for Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli or Chartical Group.

You have waived the right of any protest or complaint against them and the Chartical collection.

All chartical service tools, including trade technology services, artificial intelligence technology, articles, supports, service credit packages, etc., aim to improve the knowledge and skills of traders and those interested in financial markets.

The results of the analysis, predictions, estimates or calculations of any of the instruments, are not signals or trading proposals, etc.

The user (you) is solely responsible for the use of these tools and any profit or loss of trades , and Chartical disclaims all responsibilities.

In Chartical, all the primary data is collected based on the global performance standards of the CFA Institute and processed by mathematical algorithms and finally analyzed with artificial intelligence, but the inherent risks of trading markets still exist and are a potential threat to traders.

Refund:

All chartical online services, including trading technology tools, artificial intelligence technology, data processing, and all service packages, including service usage credit, online service packages and everything else, as well as physical goods, downloads, video training courses or face-to-face, workshops, coachings and workshops cannot be returned, canceled or refunded in any way.

No fee will be refunded under any circumstances.

Because these products or services can be copied and reproduced after purchase; or at the time of purchase, immediately by Chartical or Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli all the infrastructures for providing the services have been prepared and provided, and the related costs for the infrastructures according to the purchased package or service have been paid.

Just like when a one-month internet package is purchased by a consumer from an operator, but not even 1 minute is used by the buyer. No refund will be made by the operator to the consumer.

As in the example, due to the provision and payment of infrastructure costs for the provision of service to the buyer (consumer) by the operator, there is no possibility of any refund, there is no refund for all Chartical services and products. Because when purchased by the consumer, all infrastructure is paid immediately for the commitment period.

Chartical points:

The points you receive in interactions with the Chartical web application are only virtual points and can only be used on this website, and outside the Chartical web application it has no credit and cannot even be criticized in any way.

Due to security issues and social laws, as well as the personal privacy of the manager or managers, users, professors and analysts, we are prohibited from providing any transactions or transaction history to third parties. And in case of repeating the request or creating a margin and any disturbance, the wrong person's access to all Chartical services will be cut off, and any fees paid by the consumer will not be refunded by Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli or the Chartical group.

Repeating such a request constitutes a unilateral termination of the contract on your part, and you waive the right of any protest or complaint.

Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical consider it their right to introduce the wrong user as a user of their services and content in social networks, and the user has deprived herself of the authority and right of any complaint or protest.

Also, the wrongful user gives this authority and right to Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical Group, that in case of violation, the wrongful user will be sued and prosecuted by him in the legal authorities.

All the above rules include the brand and name of Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical.

Lifetime subscriptions:

Lifetime subscriptions are valid for as long as Chartical group operates, meaning that lifetime is equal to Chartical's lifetime, not the user's lifetime.

Lifetime subscriptions services correspond to the current services, not the services at the time of purchase of the lifetime subscription. That is, Chartical has the right and permission to unilaterally remove, add or change its services over time in order to improve its services.

If any transfer of subscription to another or any financial or moral or reputational damage is done in any way, the contract will be terminated by the buyer (user) and access to all services of Chartical, Ahmedreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical Collection will be terminated. They have the right to pursue legal actions against the wrongdoer, equal to the losses they have suffered.

Regional and national laws:

Due to the fact that it is almost impossible and unguaranteed to prove the user's place of use of Chartical services, due to the possibility of using IP change tools, any responsibility against the legal restrictions in the user's country is entirely his own responsibility, and Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical Group are exempt from any responsibility against regional or national laws.

Post any message, in any form, on Chartical that is offensive, threatening, political, racist, immoral, pornographic, disrespectful to others and any content about religions will be removed immediately; And your access to all Chartical services will be blocked without any warning, and even if requested by legal and judicial authorities, your information will be provided to them.

Electronic signature:

means any type of sign attached or logically connected to (message data) used to identify the signer of (message data) using a means of remote communication, which means any means that It is used for the sale of goods and services without the physical presence of the supplier and the consumer at the same time, and it is done in the form of a remote contract, which is the request and acceptance of the goods and services between the supplier and the consumer using remote communication devices.

Whenever the law requires a signature, an electronic signature is sufficient.

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