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سه دیدگاه در مورد “سقوط” ین

ین ژاپن در هفته‌ های اخیر در حال گذراندن یک نوسانات زیادی بوده و اکنون از سال 2020 در مقایسه با دلار آمریکا بیش از 45 درصد کاهش یافته. در اینجا سه دیدگاه متفاوت در مورد وضعیت فعلی آن وجود دارد.

  •  این یک فروپاشی تمام عیار است

اگر نگاه از بالا به این وضعیت داشته باشید، مطمئناً از آنچه در حال رخ دادن است ناراحت خواهید شد. ین/دلار آمریکا در روز دوشنبه به 160 رسید، از 110 در ابتدای سال 2020. این حرکت بزرگی برای سومین ارز ذخیره بزرگ جهان است. و این تا حد زیادی به دلیل این واقعیت است که تورم از 0 درصد در بیشتر 20 سال گذشته به 4.3 درصد در سال 2023 رسیده است. بانک مرکزی دیگر نرخ ها را افزایش داد.

این دنیایی کاملاً متفاوت از دنیایی است که ژاپن در 30-40 سال گذشته در آن زندگی می‌ کرد، جایی که کاهش تورم و ZIRP (سیاست نرخ بهره صفر) موضوع غالب بود. تورم از 4.3 درصد به 2.7 درصد تعدیل شده است، اما با توجه به اینکه نرخ تورم فعلی قوی از حد انتظار است، برخی نمی‌ دانند که آیا ژاپن در حال حرکت به عصر جدیدی از تورم بالاتر است که در آن ZIRP دیگر رویکرد سیاستی درستی نیست و بنابراین سوپاپ تسکین اقتصاد از طریق نرخ ارز است. اگر تورم واقعاً در آستانه بالاتر ماندن یا بالاتر رفتن است، وضعیت در اینجا نگران ‌کننده‌ تر است. اما بیایید کمی از بالاتر نگاه کنیم زیرا این به هیچ وجه جدید نیست.

  • این فقط نوسانات معمول FX است

در سال‌ های 2011-2015، ین/دلار آمریکا از 75 به 120 جهش کرد. پیش بینی های متعددی از سوی سرمایه‌ گذاران برجسته وجود داشت که ین را مرده اعلام کردند.

این همان استدلالی بود که مردم امروز مطرح می ‌کنند – بار بدهی بزرگ دولت، ارز را از بین می ‌برد و باعث بحران می‌ شود. اما این بحران هرگز رخ نداد. در واقع، اگر به نرخ FX در طول 45 سال گذشته نگاه کنید، حرکت فعلی به 160 چندان زیاد به نظر نمی رسد زیرا ین در کل دوره عمدتاً رنج بوده است. شما می توانستید در سال 1990 بخوابید و امروز از خواب بیدار شوید و فکر کنید که هیچ اتفاقی نیفتاده است.

از این منظر، همه اینها نسبتاً خوش خیم به نظر می رسد. تورم به طرز ناراحت کننده ای بالا است، اما چیزی نیست که از پنجره بیرون بپرید.

  • ژاپن در حال عادی سازی حباب دوگانه کاهش تورم است

نمای 30000 فوتی تصویر بسیار متفاوتی را در اختیار ما قرار می دهد. این دیدگاه رویدادهای فوق‌ العاده پیچیده و آسیب‌زا را پوشش می ‌دهد که در طول دوره 50 ساله پس از حباب بدنام قیمت دارایی رخ داده است. ژاپن بزرگترین حباب ترکیبی املاک و مستغلات و بازار سهام در تاریخ را داشت که به دنبال آن یک رکود بزرگ ترازنامه و کاهش اهرم ‌زدایی رخ داد. سپس آنها 30 سال کاهش تورم و ZIRP داشتند. سپس کووید شیوع پیدا کرد و در نهایت تورم کمی داشتیم.

آنچه در این دوره واقعاً برجسته است، سقوط فوق ‌العاده دلار در برابر ین در طی رونق حباب دوگانه دهه‌ های 80 و 90 با افزایش نرخ ارز از 350 به تنها 120 در یک دوره 20 ساله است. سپس ین تا 30 سال آینده تا حد زیادی رنج حرکت کرد و سرانجام به نرخ فعلی 160 رسید.

هنگامی که از طریق این لنز مشاهده می شود، به نظر نمی رسد که یک ارز سقوط کند، بلکه فقط یک نوع عادی سازی است. به عبارت دیگر، ژاپن نرخ تورم نرمال‌ تری را تجربه می ‌کند و البته، ژاپنی ها احمق نیستند. آنها بیش از یک تریلیون دلار دارند و همیشه آماده دفاع از ین در صورت نیاز بوده اند. بنابراین، از قضا، هرچه دلار بیشتر افزایش یابد، موقعیت ارز FX دولت ژاپن قوی تر می شود. وقتی این را با نرخ نسبتاً پایین تورم ترکیب می ‌کنید، وضعیت بسیار قابل کنترل به نظر می ‌رسد به جای اینکه نوعی سقوط ارز در بازارهای نوظهور باشد که در آن کشور دارای ذخایر کم و نرخ تورم بالا در تجربه سقوط ارز هستند. این خیلی متفاوت است.

تا اینجا به نظر نمی رسد که این یک وضعیت وحشتناک باشد. و در زمینه یک تاریخ بسیار طولانی تر، به نظر می رسد که این امر مانند عادی سازی بسیار مورد نیاز برای اقتصادی است که در 40 سال گذشته دستخوش برخی رویدادهای بسیار غیرعادی شده است. تمام آنچه گفته شد، ما می خواهیم روند تورم را زیر نظر داشته باشیم. به هر حال، کاهش نرخ ارز به خودی خود یک مشکل نیست. اما زمانی که با نرخ بسیار بالایی از تورم همراه باشد، معمولاً سیگنالی است که یک بحران واقعی FX در حال آشکار شدن است. با تورم تنها 2.7 درصد که به نظر نمی رسد در اینجا چنین باشد، اما ارزش آن را دارد که به دقت مراقب آن باشیم زیرا سقوط معنی دار سومین ارز ذخیره جهان یک رویداد اقتصادی جهانی منفرد نخواهد بود.

نویسنده:صبا لطیفی

https://t.me/fundamentallatifi

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Chartical rules and regulations

Risk disclosure and disclaimer:

Trading in all financial markets, including stocks, currencies, currency pairs, commodities, indices, cryptocurrencies, futures, etc., can lead to large and even irreparable losses to your capital. Therefore, making any transactions in these markets should only be done within the framework of knowing and accepting all the risks.

Due to the general nature of all trading markets, loss is an inseparable part of the trading results of all traders who trade with a variety of methods or tools. So naturally, no matter how you trade in any market, losses are always lurking.

Chartical advises everyone that if you are not yet engaged in trading in the financial markets, avoid doing so. Unless you become aware of all the risks of trading in the financial markets through reliable and scientific sources. All responsibility for the results of trading in these markets is with you.

Chartical collection is only a scientific collection, whose purpose is to improve the knowledge of those interested in financial markets. Chartical does not advertise, promote or encourage trading in financial markets.

Also, all content, trade technology services, artificial intelligence technology services, tools and support, whether free or paid, are only for the personal use of the user (you).

You do not have the right to copy or provide your user panel to others.

In case of violation, legal action will be taken according to the laws of copyright and author's right, and the user's access will be cut off from all services.

In this case, any fees you have paid to Chartical Group or Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli will not be returned to you, and you have taken away the right of any protest or complaint.

Because this means unilateral termination from your side.

Advertisements, software or companies introduced by Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli or the Chartical Group are only suggestions, and there is no responsibility for Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Amili or the Chartical Group.

The research and responsibility of using these software, data or companies is entirely the responsibility of the user (you), and the use of any of them constitutes acceptance of risk and responsibility on your part.

The only certainty in the market is uncertainty.

There is also the possibility of errors in Chartical's data or calculations, although we make every effort to provide good service, but ultimately the decision and responsibility of using Chartical's services rests with you.

We do not make any guarantees for the accuracy of the data and calculations.

Opening a trading account or any activity and transaction, in any of the brokerages or exchanges suggested by Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli or Chartical Group, requires and means accepting the rules and text of the contract, and the agreement between you and the relevant company.

Any reliability, accuracy and speed of service or support are all made by the respective (offered) companies. Any opening of an account or cooperation with brokers or exchanges means accepting the responsibility of the user (you) and does not have any obligation or responsibility for Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli or Chartical Group.

You have waived the right of any protest or complaint against them and the Chartical collection.

All chartical service tools, including trade technology services, artificial intelligence technology, articles, supports, service credit packages, etc., aim to improve the knowledge and skills of traders and those interested in financial markets.

The results of the analysis, predictions, estimates or calculations of any of the instruments, are not signals or trading proposals, etc.

The user (you) is solely responsible for the use of these tools and any profit or loss of trades , and Chartical disclaims all responsibilities.

In Chartical, all the primary data is collected based on the global performance standards of the CFA Institute and processed by mathematical algorithms and finally analyzed with artificial intelligence, but the inherent risks of trading markets still exist and are a potential threat to traders.

Refund:

All chartical online services, including trading technology tools, artificial intelligence technology, data processing, and all service packages, including service usage credit, online service packages and everything else, as well as physical goods, downloads, video training courses or face-to-face, workshops, coachings and workshops cannot be returned, canceled or refunded in any way.

No fee will be refunded under any circumstances.

Because these products or services can be copied and reproduced after purchase; or at the time of purchase, immediately by Chartical or Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli all the infrastructures for providing the services have been prepared and provided, and the related costs for the infrastructures according to the purchased package or service have been paid.

Just like when a one-month internet package is purchased by a consumer from an operator, but not even 1 minute is used by the buyer. No refund will be made by the operator to the consumer.

As in the example, due to the provision and payment of infrastructure costs for the provision of service to the buyer (consumer) by the operator, there is no possibility of any refund, there is no refund for all Chartical services and products. Because when purchased by the consumer, all infrastructure is paid immediately for the commitment period.

Chartical points:

The points you receive in interactions with the Chartical web application are only virtual points and can only be used on this website, and outside the Chartical web application it has no credit and cannot even be criticized in any way.

Due to security issues and social laws, as well as the personal privacy of the manager or managers, users, professors and analysts, we are prohibited from providing any transactions or transaction history to third parties. And in case of repeating the request or creating a margin and any disturbance, the wrong person's access to all Chartical services will be cut off, and any fees paid by the consumer will not be refunded by Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli or the Chartical group.

Repeating such a request constitutes a unilateral termination of the contract on your part, and you waive the right of any protest or complaint.

Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical consider it their right to introduce the wrong user as a user of their services and content in social networks, and the user has deprived herself of the authority and right of any complaint or protest.

Also, the wrongful user gives this authority and right to Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical Group, that in case of violation, the wrongful user will be sued and prosecuted by him in the legal authorities.

All the above rules include the brand and name of Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical.

Lifetime subscriptions:

Lifetime subscriptions are valid for as long as Chartical group operates, meaning that lifetime is equal to Chartical's lifetime, not the user's lifetime.

Lifetime subscriptions services correspond to the current services, not the services at the time of purchase of the lifetime subscription. That is, Chartical has the right and permission to unilaterally remove, add or change its services over time in order to improve its services.

If any transfer of subscription to another or any financial or moral or reputational damage is done in any way, the contract will be terminated by the buyer (user) and access to all services of Chartical, Ahmedreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical Collection will be terminated. They have the right to pursue legal actions against the wrongdoer, equal to the losses they have suffered.

Regional and national laws:

Due to the fact that it is almost impossible and unguaranteed to prove the user's place of use of Chartical services, due to the possibility of using IP change tools, any responsibility against the legal restrictions in the user's country is entirely his own responsibility, and Mr. Ahmadreza Jabal Ameli and Chartical Group are exempt from any responsibility against regional or national laws.

Post any message, in any form, on Chartical that is offensive, threatening, political, racist, immoral, pornographic, disrespectful to others and any content about religions will be removed immediately; And your access to all Chartical services will be blocked without any warning, and even if requested by legal and judicial authorities, your information will be provided to them.

Electronic signature:

means any type of sign attached or logically connected to (message data) used to identify the signer of (message data) using a means of remote communication, which means any means that It is used for the sale of goods and services without the physical presence of the supplier and the consumer at the same time, and it is done in the form of a remote contract, which is the request and acceptance of the goods and services between the supplier and the consumer using remote communication devices.

Whenever the law requires a signature, an electronic signature is sufficient.

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