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چه اتفاقی می‌افتد اگر فدرال‌ رزرو به‌جای کاهش نرخ، افزایش آن را اعلام کند؟

نکات کلیدی فدرال رزرو

-شتاب کاهش قریب‌الوقوع نرخ بهره فدرال رزرو در میان رشد شدید مشاغل و تورم سرسختانه بالاتر از هدف کاهش یافته است.

-شاخصCPI  اصلی 3 و 6 ماهه در ماه های اخیر افزایش یافته است، که نشان می دهد روند کاهش تورم ممکن است متوقف شود.

-معامله گران احتمال افزایش نرخ بهره فدرال رزرو در سال 2024 را با یک رقم کوچک اما غیر صفر قیمت گذاری می کنند. این شانس ها می توانند با چند گزارش تورمی قوی تر از حد انتظار افزایش پیدا کنند.

از ابتدای سال، انتظارات معامله گران از چشم انداز نرخ بهره فدرال رزرو در سال 2024 تغییرات شدیدی داشته است و از قیمت گذاری در 7 کاهش نرخ بهره 25 واحدی (0.25 درصدی) به تنها سه کاهش امروزی رسیده است.

چرا این تغییر ناگهانی؟

این به نرخ تورم سرسخت و ارقام شگفت‌انگیز قوی بازار کار ایالات متحده بر می گردد که پیش ‌بینی ‌های اقتصادی استاندارد را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. با پرداختن به دومی، گزارش ماهانه اشتغال و دستمزد غیر کشاورزی نشان می دهد که اقتصاد ایالات متحده به طور متوسط بیش از 210 هزار شغل جدید خالص در نیمه دوم سال 2013 ایجاد کرده است که به سختی نسبت به نیمه اول سال کاهش یافته و هنوز بسیار بالاتر از رشد مورد نیاز است. برای همگام شدن با افزایش جمعیت ماه گذشته، ما متوجه شدیم که سرعت رشد شغل ممکن است در برآورد اول تا 353 هزار نفر افزایش یابد.

در حالی که رشد قوی در بازار کار قطعا مهم است، تحولات در جبهه تورم حتی بیشتر بر مسیر نرخ بهره آینده فدرال رزرو تأثیر می‌ گذارد

مشکلات تورم ادامه دار

اخیراً، نرخ‌ های تورم ایالات متحده در سطح بالایی گیر کرده است و نشانه‌ ای از کاهش مجدد به هدف بلند مدت 2 درصدی فدرال رزرو قابل مشاهده نیست. شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده (CPI) در ماه ژانویه نسبت به سال قبل 3.1 درصد افزایش داشت که از میانگین پیش بینی اقتصاددانان برای افزایش 2.9 درصدی فراتر رفت. این هشتمین ماه متوالی است که تورم در اطراف یا بالاتر از مرز 3 درصد قرار دارد.

با تمرکز روی CPI اصلی- که قیمت ‌های غیرقابل پیش ‌بینی مواد غذایی و انرژی را حذف می کند – متوجه می ‌شویم که از سپتامبر تا کنون حدود 4 گیر کرده است. در ژانویه امسال، 3.9 درصد نسبت به سال گذشته افزایش یافت و دوباره از 3.7 درصد پیش بینی شده پیشی گرفت:

در حالی که هر رقم ماهانه ای مستعد تحریف های یکباره است، اقتصاددانان اشاره کرده اند که هر دو نرخ تورم اصلی سه ماهه و شش ماهه (سالانه) در ژانویه نشان می دهد که ما تا رسیدن به اهداف خود فاصله داریم. نرخ سه ماهه از 3.3 درصد به 4 درصد و نرخ شش ماهه از 3.2 درصد به 3.7 درصد افزایش یافت.

بسیاری استدلال می کنند که فدرال رزرو توجه بیشتری به شاخص تورم هزینه مصرف کننده شخصی (PCE) دارد و آنها اشتباه نمی کنند. اما نکته مهم اینجاست: حتی با آن معیار محافظه ‌کارانه‌ تر، روند کاهش تورم نشانه ‌هایی از دست دادن نیرو بالاتر از سطح هدف 2 درصدی فدرال رزرو را نشان می ‌دهد.

آیا شاهد افزایش نرخ بهره بانک مرکزی در سال 2024 خواهیم بود؟ چرا آنقدر که به نظر می رسد دیوانه کننده نیست

داده های اخیر تورم ناظران بازار را کمی ناامید کرده است. همانطور که در بالا ذکر شد، بازار بر روی بیش از هفت کاهش 0.25 درصدی نرخ در سال 2024 در ابتدای سال گمانه زنی کرده بود. سریعا انتظارات به تنها سه کاهش تعدیل شده است، که بیشتر با پیش بینی های خود فدرال رزرو هماهنگ است. قابل ذکر است، در این مدت، بازده اوراق قرضه 10 ساله دولت آمریکا از 3.8 درصد به 4.3 درصد رسیده است.

در یک چرخش شگفت‌انگیز، بازار حتی احتمال افزایش نرخ بهره را در سال جاری مورد بررسی قرار داده است، اگرچه احتمال آن در حدود 8 درصد پایین است. این تحول قابل توجهی است که تعداد کمی از تحلیلگران منتظر آمدن آن بودند و حتی جروم پاول، رئیس فدرال رزرو، به نظر می رسید که ایده افزایش نرخ بهره در کوتاه مدت را رد کند:

این تغییر به این معنی است که سرمایه گذاران شروع به تعدیل گمانه زنی های خود کرده و برای افزایش احتمالی نرخ بهره آماده می شوند. اما اگر شانس صعود به 50% نزدیکتر شود، می ‌توانیم در زمان ‌های سختی در بازار باشیم.

تقویت دلار آمریکا، افزایش بازده اوراق قرضه دولتی (به معنای کاهش قیمت اوراق قرضه) و اصلاح احتمالی در بازار سهام می تواند محتمل باشد، به خصوص اگر داده های تورم و بازار کار آتی فراتر از انتظارات باشد. اما در حال حاضر، بیشتر پیش بینی های بازار چنین تغییرات چشمگیری را پیش بینی نمی کنند.

تهیه کننده و نویسنده:صبا لطیفی

کانال تلگرام: https://t.me/fundamentallatifi

پیج اینستاگرام: Shadii_trading_fundamental

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